Goldman Sachs Raises US Recession Risk to 35% as Economic Storm Clouds Gather
Goldman Sachs has increased its US recession probability forecast to 35%, citing concerns over tariffs, consumer confidence, and economic uncertainties. The investment bank predicts three Fed rate cuts in 2023 while lowering GDP growth estimates amid mounting challenges including massive government debt refinancing needs.
Federal Reserve Maintains Rates, Signals Economic Caution with Growth Forecast Cut
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates at 4.5% while lowering its 2025 GDP growth forecast to 1.7%, citing economic uncertainties and persistent inflation concerns. Chairman Powell emphasized steady progress but acknowledged tariff impacts are delaying the path to the 2% inflation target.
U.S. Private Sector Job Growth Hits 7-Month Low as Economy Shows Signs of Cooling
Private employers added just 77,000 jobs in February 2024, falling short of expectations and marking the smallest monthly gain since July. While leisure and hospitality showed strength, key sectors like transportation and education saw significant job losses amid growing economic uncertainty.
Atlanta Fed's GDP Forecast Plunges as Trade Deficit and Consumer Spending Raise Red Flags
The Atlanta Federal Reserve's GDPNow model has drastically cut its Q1 2025 growth forecast from +2.3% to -1.5%, marking one of the steepest declines ever recorded. The dramatic revision stems from an expanding trade deficit and weakening consumer spending, though analysts note these early projections could shift as more data becomes available.
U.S. GDP Growth Holds Steady at 2.3% in Q4 2024, Inflation Edges Higher
The U.S. economy maintained 2.3% growth in Q4 2024 according to revised estimates, marking a moderate slowdown from Q3's 3.1% expansion. Key inflation measures saw slight upward revisions, with core PCE rising to 2.7% amid steady full-year growth of 2.8%.