Moderna's stock took a sharp dive on Monday following the biotech company's announcement of reduced sales expectations for 2025. The company lowered its revenue forecast by approximately $1 billion, sending shares tumbling nearly 17% by market close.
The revised guidance now projects 2025 revenue between $1.5 billion and $2.5 billion, down from the previous estimate of $2.5 billion to $3.5 billion announced in September. The company expects most sales to materialize in the second half of 2025, primarily from its Covid-19 vaccine and recently launched respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) shot.
Chief Financial Officer Jamey Mock cited several challenges facing the company, including:
- Declining market share in the U.S. retail Covid vaccine market, dropping from 48% in 2023 to 40% by end of 2024
- Overall decrease in vaccination rates, with U.S. retail market showing a 7% decline in fall 2024 compared to 2023
- Uncertainty around manufacturing contracts with various countries
- Questions about CDC advisory recommendations for RSV revaccination
To counter these headwinds, Moderna plans aggressive cost-cutting measures, targeting $1 billion in cash cost reductions for 2025, followed by an additional $500 million cut in 2026.
The news impacted other vaccine manufacturers as well, with Novavax and BioNTech stocks falling more than 7%.
Despite current challenges, Moderna maintains an optimistic outlook for its product pipeline, announcing plans for 10 new product approvals over the next three years. These include a combination Covid-flu vaccine and an advanced Covid shot, with three potential approvals expected in 2025 alone.
The company's current revenue primarily stems from its Covid vaccine, which met 2024 forecasts with sales between $3 billion and $3.1 billion. However, this represents a substantial decline from $6.7 billion in 2023 and $18 billion in 2022, reflecting diminishing demand for Covid vaccinations.