From the monthly archives:

October 2009

Intermediate sell signal

by Bull Bear Times on October 30, 2009

in Stock Market

Read our November 1st (Sunday evening) post for an update on the intermediate sell signal we received this past week.

Unemployment not an easy fix

by Bull Bear Times on October 20, 2009

in U.S. Economy

Key findings from “The Anguish of Unemployment”--a report conducted by the John J. Heldrich Center for Workforce Development at Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey–reveals the economic and personal costs of prolonged joblessness.

This national survey conducted among 1,200 Americans nationwide who have been unemployed and looking for a job in the past 12 months, including 894 who are still jobless. Survey results portray shaken, traumatized people coping with serious financial and psychological effects from an economic downturn of epic proportion.

  • Two-thirds of respondents say they are depressed.
  • Over half have borrowed money from friends or relatives.
  • A quarter have skipped mortgage or rent payments.
  • 60% of the recently unemployed lost their jobs suddenly–without advance warning.
  • Eight in ten got two week’s notice or less.
  • Only 15% received severance.
  • None were offered retraining.
  • Only 40% of the currently unemployed received unemployment insurance. Most are concerned that the benefits will end before they find a job.
  • Only half of the jobless have health benefits.
  • More than half think the changes in the economy will be fundamental and lasting.
  • Over half of the unemployed have lost their jobs for the first time, while 4 in 10 had held the same job for three or more years.
  • Eight in ten say they do not expect that they have much chance of returning to the place they once worked, even though most workers (72%) held what they had thought were permanent jobs.
  • More than one in four of those who were unemployed for the first time earned $75,000 or more in their previous job.
  • One in four first-time unemployed workers have at least a four-year college degree.
  • The personal and family impact on the respondents suggests a mental health epidemic that could have long-lasting effects on people’s willingness to spend, invest, save, and take risks.
  • Three-quarters of the still jobless report stress in their daily lives, two-thirds report being depressed, three-fifths feel helpless, and more than half say they’re angry.

According to some economists, it could take at least eight years to get back to 5% unemployment.


    Corrective down move in process

    October 18, 2009

    After the S&P hit 1,096–close to the overhead resistance, starting at 1,100–the markets turned down on Friday and should continue down early this week. Third quarter earnings will continue to be reported over the next ten days so volatility should continue. Only buy on weakness–buy stocks on pullbacks over the next couple weeks. For those [...]

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    Market correction coming

    October 15, 2009

    The stock market continues its up move as it approaches overhead resistance at 1,100 to 1,125 on the S&P 500 and 10,100 to 10,200 on the Dow Jones. The S & P (Standard & Poor’s) 500 is made up of 500 widely held stocks. This index is weighted by market capitalization. About 75% of all [...]

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    Weak economy. Why strong stock and bond markets?

    October 11, 2009

    The economy seems to be recovering, but at a slow pace. The stock and bond markets, however, are charging ahead. For example, the stock market closed on Friday at its high for 2009–the Dow is up nearly 50% from its March low. So why are the stock and bond markets so strong? One of the [...]

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    Another market top

    October 6, 2009

    After a two-day bounce, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is within 60-70 points of its closing high for the year. Despite low volume on the current rally, the market should attempt a new high before a new market correction occurs. The Dow Jones Utility Average and Dow Jones Transportation Average will unlikely make new [...]

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    Small business employment–key to the recovery

    October 4, 2009

    According to CNNMoney.com, “Roughly half the nation’s workforce is on the payroll of a small business.” Yet, the National Federation of Independent Businesses reports: “Over the next three months, 16 percent plan to reduce employment (up 3 points), and 7 percent plan to create new jobs (unchanged), yielding a seasonally adjusted net negative 4 percent [...]

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    Unemployment rate continues decline in September

    October 2, 2009

    The latest Employment Situation Summary released today by the Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics shows a continuing negative trend in unemployment. Nonfarm payroll employment continued to decline in September (-263,000), and the unemployment rate (9.8 percent) continued to trend up, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The largest job losses were in [...]

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    Dow Jones 10,000

    October 1, 2009

    After the Dow Jones reached around 9,920 in late September, most of the financial community believed the Dow Jones 10,000 would be reached quickly. However, now, ten days later, the Dow Jones has moved back to the 9,500 area as many economic statistics showed weakness for the month of September. The overwhelming majority of economists [...]

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