From the monthly archives:

September 2009

Existing home sales fall

by Bull Bear Times on September 25, 2009

in U.S. Economy

According to the National Association of Realtors, existing home sales in August fell 2.7% from their July level–following four monthly gains– but remain above year ago levels.

“Existing home sales–including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – declined 2.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.10 million units in August from a pace of 5.24 million in July, but remain 3.4 percent above the 4.93 million-unit level in August 2008. In the previous four months, sales had risen a total of 15.2 percent.”

According to the National Association of Realtors Chief Economist Lawrence Yun:

“Some of the give-back in closed sales appears to result from rising numbers of contracts entering the system, with some fallouts and a backlog contributing to a longer closing process, but the decline demonstrates we can’t take a housing rebound for granted.”

“The recent trend shows broad improvement in most of the country, but with an expected rise in foreclosures over the next 12 months we need to maintain a healthy level of ready buyers to absorb the inventory. An extension of the tax credit is critical to preserve incentives for financially qualified buyers to enter the market.”

The National Association of Realtors has asked its members to urge Congress to extend the first-time homebuyer tax credit into next year. It is currently set to expire November 30.

Since its inception earlier this year, this $8,000 tax credit has brought 1.2 million new buyers into the market. According to the National Association of Realtors, 350,000 of these buyers would not have purchased a home without the credit.

China tariff tax–who benefits?

by Bull Bear Times on September 24, 2009

in U.S. Economy

As posted earlier on Bull Bear Times, President Obama set a 35% tariff on tires imported from China. With this tariff about to go into effect, there have been several announcements that make one wonder, exactly who is benefiting:

  • U.S. tire wholesalers are warning that prices to retailers will increase by about 15%. Others suggest the increase could be as high as 28%. Pre-tariff warehouse inventories are holding the increase down–otherwise, the increase would be even higher.
  • Because of thin margins on tires, much of the increase will be passed on to the customer.
  • Chinese tire makers sell the cheapest tires–resulting in a significant increase on what was once a low-price item. Low-income Americans will be most negatively impacted by this.
  • The tariff could cost 20,000 jobs in the tire distribution and retail sector  while saving 1,000 jobs at domestic manufacturing plants. U.S. consumers will pay $330,000 in higher prices for each of those 1,000 jobs.

According to the Tire Industry Association Executive Vice President Roy Littlefield:

“The tire manufacturers made the decision years ago to shift production of these lower-cost tires out of the U.S. All this action will do is force the tire manufacturers to shift production of these lower-cost tires to other countries, such as Brazil and India. The bottom line here is that despite what the union and the President believes, these jobs are not coming back, and now we can expect more job losses here in our already struggling economy.”

Looks like we’re saving manufacturing jobs, but it’s the consumer who’s paying the increased price. So who really benefits here?

Lesson: When government interferes with markets, there are always winners and losers.

Economic outlook–Fed Open Market Committee

September 24, 2009

The Federal Open Market Committee–headed by Ben Bernanke– suggests an increase in economic activity and an expected strengthening of the economy: The financial markets have improved. Activity in the housing sector has increased. Household spending is stabilizing although job losses, slow income growth, reduced housing wealth, and tight credit are restricting a real improvement. Businesses [...]

Continue →

Ben Bernanke and the Federal Open Market Committee

September 22, 2009

Wednesday concludes a two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. Interest rates are not expected to change. They will remain at the historically low levels. The big issue facing the committee is how to encourage bank lending while building the health of the banking system. Banks currently are very conservative in their lending and [...]

Continue →

Commercial real estate trends

September 21, 2009

Commercial real estate prices for four property types–multi-family, retail, office and industrial–are tracked by the Moody’s /REAL Commercial Property Price Indices (CPPI). They are known for transparency and methodological rigor by tracking transaction prices. As explained at the MIT Center for Real Estate website: The index is designed to track same-property realized round-trip price changes [...]

Continue →

Retail sales up for August

September 15, 2009

The Commerce Department’s U.S. Census Bureau today released retail sales for August 2009. These are the advanced estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for August, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes. According to the report: Retail trade and food sales rose 2.7% in August from [...]

Continue →

Chinese trade policies

September 14, 2009

The Obama administration has decided to place additional duties of 35% on the import of Chinese tires to take effect September 26. Shares of Goodyear and Cooper Tire rose today while the share price of Chinese tire makers plunged in early trade Monday, led by major producer Double Coin. China considers this a serious case [...]

Continue →

Insider selling

September 13, 2009

Despite the continued stock market rally and the positive views of most economists and analysts on Wall Street, insiders–corporate officers and directors who have knowledge of, or access to, valuable nonpublic information about the corporation–appear to be selling more than buying. According to an article in CNNMoney.com, Charles Biderman of Trim Tabs reported that in August, [...]

Continue →

U.S. Commerce Department releases trade data

September 10, 2009

U.S. Commerce Secretary Gary Locke issued the July 2009 U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report. The release shows the following: U.S. exports increased by 2.2 percent to $127.6 billion since June 2009. Imports increased 4.7 percent to $159.6 billion. Therefore, the U.S. trade deficit climbed 16.3% to $32 billion in July. According to [...]

Continue →

The Beige Book-September 9th report

September 10, 2009

The Federal Reserve published its Commentary on Current Economic Conditions. Commonly referred to as the Beige Book, this report is published eight times a year. As explained at the Federal Reserve site: Each Federal Reserve Bank gathers anecdotal information on current economic conditions in its District through reports from Bank and Branch directors and interviews [...]

Continue →