From the monthly archives:

June 2009

Higher taxes

by Bull Bear Times on June 30, 2009

in U.S. Economy

What do you need for an economic recovery?

1) More credit available (the ability to borrow money) so the consumer and businesses can finance the purchase of goods and services and the expansion of their businesses;

2) More jobs–that’s obvious: without work, people cannot consume;

3) Lower taxes–so consumers and businesses have more cash available.

However, the new administration with its many programs will create a deficit this fiscal year in the range of one and one-half to two trillion dollars–the highest in history. So how will this deficit be funded? You got it: higher taxes. Next year the Bush tax cuts will expire and not be extended. That means tax cuts enacted in 2001 on ordinary income, capital gains, estates, dividends, and even more–will all rise. Most Americans will see their taxes go up.

Next, there are new tax proposals floating through the halls of Congress. The latest one is called a value-added tax (VAT). This tax would be imposed on all purchases. As explained in the Washington Post: “A VAT is a tax on the transfer of goods and services that ultimately is borne by the consumer. Highly visible, it would increase the cost of just about everything, from a carton of eggs to a visit with a lawyer.”

Also, income taxes on incomes over $250,000 would likely be raised to the 50% level.

So when you look at all the taxes being proposed by the federal government and add to that the additional taxes being proposed by the states and cities, you can certainly see how the successful businessperson and professional could be paying a total tax of between 50 and 60% of their income in the near future.

With all these taxes, how can you expect a recovery?

Lesson: History has shown us that raising taxes deters growth and usually results in less revenue rather than more. Expect higher deficits, higher taxes, and a weak recovery, unless we get more available credit, more jobs, and lower taxes.

End-of-the-quarter “window dressing”

by Bull Bear Times on June 29, 2009

in Stock Market

Many institutions–like mutual funds and other investment management companies–get paid based on the value of their portfolio–the assets under their management– on the last day of each quarter.  There’s an interesting phenomena, that on the last day or so of each quarter, the stock market has a tendency to go up–especially the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S & P 500--which trade the large-cap stocks (the largest companies). Investment management companies tend to own–in their portfolios– a large proportion of large-cap stocks.

There are reasons why investment managers buy stocks in this fashion. First, they want to show a fully-invested position–especially in a quarter where the stock market has been rising, like the March to June 2009 quarter. This quarter has produced the largest quarterly price rise in the last 10 years. Because most managers do not have to reveal to their investors when they buy and sell stocks, the only positions shown are at the end of the quarter. If the investment manager had been positioned in cash, many investors might question the value of their services and take their money away. Because investment managers may have reduced their investing due to concerns of risk– but still want to show they are fully invested at quarter end–in an up quarter, they often buy stocks at the end-of-the-quarter and then sell them when the new quarter starts.

Another reason to get invested at the end-of-the-quarter is to get the price of their invested portfolio increased to a higher value. Because they get paid based on the value of the portfolio, higher stock prices of those equities that they hold will generate higher fees for the investment manager.

Today, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 90.99 points or a little over 1% while the NASDAQ which includes many smaller companies–was up only 5.84 points or .32%. And the Russell 2000 Index–which measures the small-cap segment of US equities–was down for the day. Could this be window dressing?

Lesson: Beware of market movements at quarter or year-end periods. They tend to be more volatile in both directions.

Natural gas–an investment opportunity?

June 26, 2009

Natural gas is a mixture of gases–found underground. It is used as a fuel for heating and cooking. The United States has a large supply of natural gas. As a commodity, natural gas usually trades at a value of approximately 1/9 of the price of oil–meaning if oil is trading at $70 a barrel–as it [...]

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Equity or debt?

June 25, 2009

When you buy equity–like stocks–you are becoming an owner of the company. You share in the company’s profits through the payment of dividends. If you receive no dividends, you hope that the company is directing its profits back into the company to enhance the company’s growth. High-growth industries–such as technology and biotech–have a reputation for [...]

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The Federal Reserve–no change in rates

June 24, 2009

Founded by Congress in 1913, the Federal Reserve System is the central bank of the United States that protects the monetary and financial system. The duties of the Federal Reserve are: 1) to conduct the nation’s monetary policy, 2) to supervise and regulate the banking institutions, 3) to maintain the stability of the financial system, [...]

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Municipal bonds–are they safe?

June 23, 2009

A municipal bond–often called a “muni”–is debt issued by a state, municipality, county  or other  tax-exempt entity such as school districts,  airports or other important public projects. In the past, municipal bonds have been considered safe and conservative investments. And investors who purchase municipal bonds get the added bonus of having the interest earned on [...]

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Stocks continue down

June 22, 2009

The Dow Jones and other market indices sold off very sharply today–they went DOWN. The stock market technicals (such as volume) warned of stock market weakness last week. Technical analysis warns of market shifts prior to any news events that support the change. And today it was The World Bank revising down world economic growth [...]

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Is gold a good investment now? And…an important sell signal.

June 20, 2009

Most investors believe that inflation is imminent because of the large amounts of money being spent by the Federal Reserve and other central banks around the world. You see, central banks exist to maintain stability of the money supply and the integrity of the national currency. As it states on the home page of the [...]

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A secular, bear market

June 18, 2009

From 1974 through 2000, we had a secular, bull market. What does that mean? During this period, despite periodic downturns and even brief down (bear) markets, the overall market trend was up. The correct posture for investors was to buy and hold good-quality stocks in a diversified portfolio. However, most Wall Street brokers favored the [...]

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Inflation or deflation?

June 17, 2009

Over the last few months, the majority of economists and investment professionals have been recommending buying certain stocks and commodities–like oil stocks, gold stocks, steel stocks, metal stocks, copper, gold and oil commodities– based on their belief that huge budget deficits and recovering world economies will bring back inflation. When inflation rises, the costs of commodities [...]

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